02/04/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to 81.3 in the current January 27 - February 2 reporting week.

Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at 6.4.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130, and 125 on February 4 - 6; 120 on February 7 - 10; 128 on February 11 - 12; 125 on February 13 - 14; 120 on February 15 - 17; 128 on February 18 - 21; 125 on February 22 - 25; 128 on February 26; 132 on February 27 - 28; 135 on March 1 - 3; 125 on March 4 - 7; 128 on March 8 - 11, and 125 on March 12 - 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18, and 10 February 4 - 7; 5 on February 8 - 10; 8 on February 11; 5 on February 12 - 16; then 10, 12, 8, and 5 on February 17 - 20; 10, 8, 5, and 8 on February 21 - 24; 12, 8, 5, and 8 on February 25 - 28; 10, 5, and 5 on March 1 - 3; 20 and 12 on March 4 - 5; 5 on March 6 - 8; then 12 and 8 on March 9 - 10; 5 on March 11 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

This is the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 3, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic length in past solar rotations, showed the unreliability of 27-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for predictions. The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29 was also a surprise because of the magnetic configuration. On the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar wind and an increase in Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A major storm was expected on February 2, but it arrived a day later and included major changes in the parameters of Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase, around 1200 UTC."

Here is an interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update[1], thanks to K9LA and K1HTV.

Via Spaceweather.com[2] comes this comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in Virginia, who thinks it may be too early to expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

This graph[3] shows why Turner is skeptical.

"Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24)," he said. "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed line) and overlaid them on SC25 [and] they're an almost perfect match."

This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle."

David Moore shared this article[4] in Science Daily about a big solar event more than 9,000 years ago that was discovered via ice core analysis.

Here's an update[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for January 27 - February 2 were 85, 77, 74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of 123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and 12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png
[4] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm
[5] https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/11/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Three new sunspot groups appeared on February 3, 6, and 8. Average daily sunspot number rose slightly during the February 3 - 9 reporting week, from 81.3 last week to 83.9. Average daily solar flux also increased modestly, from 123.1 to 126.

Solar flares and geomagnetic storms this week raised the average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle latitude A index - measured at one location in Virginia - went from 6.4 to 9.6.

At 0523 UTC on February 11, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. "A recurrent coronal hole is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of 49 just-launched low-Earth orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially robust. But February 3-4, the high latitude college A index measured near Fairbanks, Alaska, was 48 and 61, a level that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

NN4X shared this Business Insider article[1] on the loss of the Starlink satellites.

We typically think of geo-storms as a negative event in terms of HF radio propagation, but not always. Sometimes, signals propagate by bouncing off the aurora.

In this vein, K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW." He said:

"Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora-sounding. Point 'em north."

"All aurora-sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds of auroral propagation, best taken advantage of by pointing antennas north to propagate signals via the aurora.

W7YED responded:

"I saw two SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10-meter FT8. One worked an XE, lasted about 5 mins then went away. And now back to the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are looking up on 10."

So far this year, sunspots were visible on every day. Last year, 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless, according to Spaceweather.com[2].

Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on February 11 - 12; 112 on February 13 - 14; 110 on February 15 - 16; 112 on February 17; 115 on February 18 - 19; 118 on February 20; 120 on February 21 - 23; 125 on February 24 - 25; 120 on February 26 - March 4; 115 and 122 on March 5 - 6; 120 on March 7 - 9; 110 on March 10 - 11; 115 on March 12 - 18; 118 on March 19, and 120 on March 20 - 22.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22, and 25 on February 11 - 14; 20, 12, 8, 10, and 8 on February 15 - 19; 5, 10, 8, 5, 8, and 12 on February 20 - 25; 8 on February 26 - 27; 5 on February 28 - March 2; 12, 10, 15, and 10 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 25 and 20 on March 12 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, offered this commentary:

"I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936 on January 29, accompanied by LDE[3], which caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink satellites launched on February 3 into low-Earth orbit from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. As a result, 40 of them did not reached planned orbit and then burned up in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch the Falcon 9 is $30 million, one satellite is $500,000, total damage to Elon Musk = $50 million.

"Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models anticipated. More accurate predictions of further developments are complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason too, we cannot rely on the 27-day periodicity, which is otherwise a good tool for compiling forecasts. If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major disturbance on 13 - 14 February. Things can be expected to calm after February 16, with quiet days after February 19. Solar flux should not fall below 100 or rise too much above 130."

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted this update[4].

N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

"I was active in the Vermont, Minnesota, and British Columbia QSO parties this past weekend. Conditions were excellent to Minnesota on 20, with loud signals from 1500 UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles were very good copy, many quite loud on 20. Forty meters suffered from D/E layer absorption, with almost all Minnesota signals below my noise level 1700 - 2030 UTC. Eighty was open well before Minnesota sunset, with workable signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC.ÿ

"Fifteen and even ten meters were open to British Columbia both weekend days. The peak of 10-meter propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days, with Saturday being better on both 20 and 15. Several British Columbia signals on 10 meters were greater than S-9 on Saturday. Many US Rocky Mountain-area and west coast signals were on the band as well. Twenty-meter conditions were excellent Saturday, 1600 - 2400 UTC, but 15 and 10 were slow to open Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

"Propagation to Vermont was about as expected, some loud signals 0000 - 0030 UTC on 40 and mostly loud stations on 75/80. Signals on 160 were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening like last year, 20 meters was open on backscatter only, and W1JXN was worked on 15-meter CW backscatter just above the noise.

"Sunday morning, February 6 saw a good 10-meter opening to southern Europe. I had an SSB run 1515 - 1550 UTC, working Croatia, Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many signals were over S-9. Twelve meters in the past few days has been open each day, at least to southern Europe.

"Last Friday, February 4, 10 meters was wide open to New Caledonia, 2130 - 2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western US."

Here are some images[5] of recent sunspot regions.

This study[6] offers an explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly referred to as "solar flames."

Sunspot numbers for February 3 - 9 were 84, 87, 91, 83, 78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 126.5, 129.6, 125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 9.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[13] your reports and observations.ÿ


[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-lost-starlink-satellites-orbit-geomagnetic-solar-storm-space-launch-2022-2
[2] http://spaceweather.com/
[3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary
[4] https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg
[5] http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591
[6] https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/18/2022

A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16, when the daily sunspot number rose to 111 - the highest value for this reporting week and well above the weekly average of 75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17 another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number declined from 111 to 103.

The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no sunspots at all.

On Thursday, February 17, the Daily Sun image on Spaceweather.com[1] showed seven sunspot groups, the whole earth-facing side of the sun peppered with spots.

Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.

Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better propagation at higher frequencies. Sixty-four years ago, sunspot numbers were so high that hams saw worldwide around-the-clock propagation on 10 meters. Sunspot numbers were never that high before or since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams thought it would always be like that. It never was.

Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from February 16 - 17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18 - 19; 98 on February 20; 102 on February 21 - 23; 105 on February 24; 108 on February 25 - 27; 110 on February 28; 115 on March 1 - 2; 112 and 110 on March 3 - 4; 108 on March 5 - 8; 105 on March 9 - 11; 103 on March 12 - 13; 100 on March 14; 98 on March 15 - 16; 102 on March 17 - 19; 104 on March 20 - 22, 108 on March 23 - 26, and 110 on March 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18 - 19; 18, 15, and 12 on February 20 - 22; 10, 8, and 10 on February 23 - 25; 15 and 10 on February 24 - 25; 5 on February 26 - March 2; 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 10; 15, 12, and 10 on March 11 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 18; 8, 5, 12, 15, 18, and 10 on March 19 - 24, and 5 on March 25 - 29.

Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere" for February 10, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the sun was greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, which do not affect Earth's ionosphere.

"We observed exceptionally poor conditions of ionospheric propagation on 80 and, especially, 160 meters on the night of February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The improvement started on the morning of February 15, beginning from the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the sun again.

"Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days, reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only slightly again on February 20 - 21 and 24 - 25 (February 22 - 24, according to other sources), causing only the usual fluctuations in propagation conditions."

NN4X reported on February 16:

"I was a little late to the party on 10 meters, having started checking propagation on 12 meters first.

"Conditions were excellent, easily the best 10-meter long-path opening I've ever seen. "I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations: BF7IEJ (1304 UTC); YC9AUB (1306 UTC); YC1THS (1319 UTC); YC7UDD (1346 UTC); VK3EW (1419 UTC); JK1OZS (1344 UTC); VR2CH (1307 UTC); VR2XYL (1305 UTC), and VR2VAZ (1339 UTC). I also worked VR2CH on 10-meter long path on February 15.

"While monitoring FT8 on 12 meters around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the antenna pointed 90ø, looking for African stations, I noticed YB0DJ decode.

"I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset. Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening (note that the daylight/darkness shading is for the time I ran the search)."

N0JK (EM28) reported on February 17:

"A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC. I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC, the only Es station worked on 6 meters. Then, on 17 meters I worked KC5LT (EM86) at 0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in February."

Check out this video[2] about ViewProp, a promising new propagation analysis tool. There is also an email list[3]. - Thanks to The ARRL Contest Update.

Reader "Neil J." shared this[4].

The Las Cruces Sun News included this article[5]: "NMSU astronomy professors welcome new robotic system at Apache Point Observatory.

"

Sunspot numbers for February 10 - 16 were 78, 86, 54, 53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 118, 113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk
[3] https://groups.io/g/viewprop
[4] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/
[5] https://bit.ly/33v3x4i
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/25/2022

New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun every day.

Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to 23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27, 105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March 23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

ÿ

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH: "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with seasonal changes with the approaching spring equinox."

ÿ

I regularly check propagation on ten meters using FT8, low power, and a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on the second floor of my home.ÿSometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. Twenty-four hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA, with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but this being ten meters, soon the coverage changed, and I saw coverage across the East Coast.

Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe, at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35TD.

On his QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info[2] to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local area by searching for signals received from your grid square over the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in your grid square active at the time.

In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW or SSB.

ÿ

Solar eruption in the news: https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/[3]

ÿ

Article about instability of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4[4]

ÿ

A blog post about recent solar events: https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa[5]

ÿ

New Maui solar telescope: https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb[6]

ÿ

February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE[7]

ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

ÿ

Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51, 49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7, 93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and 4, with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ

ÿ


[1] http://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[2] http://pskreporter.info
[3] https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/
[4] https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4
[5] https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa
[6] https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb
[7] https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/04/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was weaker over the February 24 - March 2 reporting week, with the average daily sunspot number weakening from 54.3 to 44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4; 108 on March 5 - 7; 106, 104, and 100 on March 8 - 10; 99 on March 11 - 13; 98 on March 14; 95 on March 15 - 16; 96, 97, 98, and 99 on March 17 - 20; 100 on March 21 - 22; 101 and 100 on March 23 - 24; 102 on March 25 - 26; 99 and 102 on March 27 - 28; 105 on March 29 - 31; 102 on April 1 - 2, 101 on April 3 - 4; 100 on April 5 - 6, and 99 on April 7 - 9.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4 - 6; 10 on March 7; 5 on March 8 - 10; 10, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on March 11 - 15; 5 on March 16 - 17; 10 on March 18; 15 on March 19 - 21; 7 on March 22 - 24; 5 and 10 on March 25 - 26; 12 on March 27 - 28; 8 on March 29 - 30; 12 on March 31; 15 on April 1 - 2; 5 on April 3 - 6, and 18, 15, and 8 on April 7 - 9.

Here's the weekly commentary from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might have surprised us if it were not for the information about the increased eruptive activity on the far side of the sun. The far-side sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft, starting with the huge far-side explosion, when the spacecraft recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the late hours of February 15. One day later, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we experienced only occasional Class C eruptions. Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly, and attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for HF propagation began to improve in early March, but this was mainly due to seasonal changes."

The article[1] "DKIST, Our Biggest Eye on the Sun, is Ready to Bring the Science," appears on the SyFy.com site.

Also, check out[2] the solar orbiter from the European Space Agency.

Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

"Wow! 10 meters long path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing today! I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143 UTC when I first checked band conditions. Operating FT8 from FN32 between 1310 GMT and 1348 GMT, I worked BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC, VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI and 12 other stations in Japan.

Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is Wow!"

The subject of an article[3] on Science Alert is "Stunning Loops of Plasma Observed on the Sun May Not Be What We Thought."

Here's a 2020 study[4] regarding the terminator event, "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude," on Springer Link.

Now, the authors have announced[5] "The Termination Event has Arrived" - the terminator event between sunspot Cycles 24 and 25.

Sunspot numbers for February 24 - March 2 were 23, 22, 22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 92.3, 96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6
[2] https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter
[3] https://bit.ly/35OpX0V
[4] https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU
[5] https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/11/2022

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On March 11 at 0431 UTC, Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued this warning: "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 March, and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

We observed an active sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked on Saturday, March 5, when Alaska's high latitude college A index reached 42.

Again this week, sunspots covered the sun every day. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11 - 12; 115 on March 13; 110 on March 14 - 16; 105 on March 17; 100 on March 18 - 21; then 101 and 103 on March 22 - 23; 104 on March 24 - 27; then 110, 115, and 116 on March 28 - 30; 118 on March 31 - April 1; 120 on April 2; 116 on April 3 - 4; then 115 and 112 on April 5 - 6; 110 on April 7 - 9, 108, 102, 98, and 99 on April 10 - 13, and 100 on April 14 - 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11; 5 on March 12 - 13; 10, 18, 15, 5, and 8 on March 14 - 18; then 12 on March 19 - 20 15 on March 21 7 on March 22 - 24; then 5, 10, and 8 on March 25 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 29; then 10, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on March 30 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 6; then 15, 20, and 12 on April 7 - 9; 5 on April 10 - 13; 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15 - 16.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength of 10.7 centimeters - more briefly referred to as "solar flux" - remains above 110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

"The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for short-wave ionospheric propagation.

"Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5 - 6) cause only a slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

Russ Hunt, WQ3X, wrote on March 4: "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10 meter FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, two DUs, and VR2XYL. I had a pileup six deep at times while using 250 W and a five-element Yagi at 50 feet. It was probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 years. Today I worked two more VR2s and three JAs, also long path, just after sunrise."

A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

"I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we get EU, Africa, and the Middle East in the mornings. I've done WAC about four or five times a week, but now running out of new stations to work."

Robert Strickland, KE2WY, asked about a good source for the latest daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site[1].

On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's ARRL International DX Contest (SSB). "I operated single band 15 meters in the ARRL DX contest but made a few QSOs on other bands. Twenty was open well to Africa and south in the 0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. Ten was open for many hours to the south. Some booming signals even from low-power stations in Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos, as well as many high-power stations such as J68HZ on St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T on Curacao.

"On 15, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

"Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less than S-9.

"I made 600 15-meter QSOs, working 86 DXCC entities.

"On 10 CW starting at 1414 UTC on March 8, I worked three new ones in a row: 7Q6M in Malawi, 5X1NA in Uganda, and JY5HX in Jordan.

"Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, in Israel. On 10 CW, V26K Antigua, and OA1F Peru.

"Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

"On 12 meter CW on March 9 at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10 SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC, in Chad, ZS1PPY in South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius! March 10, featured excellent high-band propagation with the solar flux climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking at S-8 on 15 SSB at 1340 UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new) and VU2DSI India at 1353 UTC.

"Turning to 10 SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Western Sahara, and CU1EZ in the Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour, 10 blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and Hungary.

"Several stations with simple end-fed wires were S-9, and the loudest signals were S-9 + 20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best openings all winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

Here is an email list[2] for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF beacons.

The vernal equinox arrives in just over a week from now, at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20. That's when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres - good for HF propagation. It is the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere, and the first day of fall in the southern.

Sunspot numbers for March 3 - 9 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84, 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 110.9, 113.1, 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[5] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[9] your reports and observations.


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[2] https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/18/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports: We saw plenty of sunspot activity this week, along with numerous solar flares. A confounding indicator was a higher average solar flux but lower average sunspot numbers. We expect to see these parameters track together, but that isn't always the case.

The average daily sunspot number went from 87.4 last week to 74.6 in the latest reporting period, March 10 - 16.

The average daily solar flux increased from 115.5 to 119.

A new sunspot group appeared on March 12, another on March 13, and two more on March 14. The total sunspot area (expressed in millionths of the solar disc) declined throughout the week, starting at 1,170 on March 10, then 1,080, 1,040, 940, 670, 490, and 290. So, the decline continued even through days that revealed new sunspots.

March 13 had the greatest geomagnetic disturbance, with the middle latitude A index at 30, the planetary A index at 40, and Alaska's college A index at 65. The A index is calculated from the K index, updated every 3 hours. In Alaska, the K was 0 in the first three readings, at 0000, 0300, and 0600 UTC, before jumping dramatically to 5, 7, 7, and 5 for the rest of the day. The K index is logarithmic, and 7 is a very big number, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux prediction peaks at 125 on April 6 - 8, but starting today, the predicted flux is 108 on March 18 - 19; 95 on March 20 - 26; 100 on March 27 - 28; 110 on March 29 - 30; 115 on March 31; then 120, 115, and 120 on April 1 - 3; 115 on April 4 - 5; 125 on April 6 - 8; 120 on April 9 - 11; 115 on April 12 - 14; 110 on April 15 - 17; 100 on April 18; then 95 on April 19 - 22, and 100 on April 23 - 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 18 - 19; then 15, 12, and 8 on March 20 - 22; 5 on March 23 - 25; 10 and 8 on March 26 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 30; 10, 25, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 15; 12 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18; then 5 on April 19 - 21, and 10 and 8 on April 22 - 23.

The vernal equinox will occur at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20 - a good sign for HF propagation as we move from winter to spring conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Undoubtedly, the most dramatic phenomenon of the past 7 days was the arrival of a CME [coronal mass ejection] on March 13, which broke away from the sun on March 10 - 11. It caused a medium [G2] geomagnetic storm. In its positive phase, [MUF] values increased during the UTC afternoon until evening, while the overall ionospheric propagation of decameter waves improved overall. In the negative phase that followed on March 14 - 15, they deteriorated significantly. A return to normal has been observed since March 16.

"A CME could do more than just ignite the bright aurora borealis. It also lowered the level of cosmic rays. A neutron monitor at the Sodankyl„ Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, saw a sharp decline in cosmic rays shortly after the CME arrived. It's called the 'Forbush Decline,' named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a cloud of coronal matter pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. The cosmic rays fell sharply on March 13, then rose sharply at noon on March 14, then fell sharply again. We attribute this fluctuation to the more complex structure of the CME cloud. The cosmic rays remained depressed for 2, partly to 4, days after the arrival of the CME.

"The consequences of the coming of a CME in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere were now, near the vernal equinox, more pronounced than they would have been at any other time of year."

I (K7RA) was experimenting with FT8 and PSKreporter[1] on Friday, March 11, on 10 meters and noticed at 2145 UTC that my low-power signal (with a very modest antenna) was heard over a narrow arc running from northern Virginia and central Texas, plus reports from two stations in New Zealand and several in South America. Fifteen minutes later, the only report was from K1HTV in Virginia. By 2224 UTC, the only reports were from two local western Washington stations, at 4 and 54 miles away.

On March 15, using the same setup on 10 meters at 1651 UTC, the only station outside the local area hearing me was XE1ACA, 2,344 miles away.

Often when coverage is marginal on 10 meters, 12 meters will be open.

At 1730 UTC on 12 meters, I was heard over a broad arc of stations 1,800 - 2,400 miles away, running from New Hampshire to south Texas, plus XE2BCS and XE1GK at 1,757 and 2,003 miles, and NH6Y in Hawaii at 2,654 miles. That arc of coverage was only 600 miles wide.

On March 14, VE1VDM reported unstable 10-meter conditions. "As of 1600 UTC [1 PM local] today, I have not had one RBN report on 28.173 MHz, nor one WSPR report on 28.126.130 MHz," he said. "The band has really tanked here in Nova Scotia."

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on March 13:

"Larry, N0LL (EM09), decoded a number of South American stations on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 0040 UTC March 13. These included CE3SX (FF46), CE0YHF/CE3, CE2SV, and LU5FF. Larry was away from the radio when this occurred. [I] suspect an Es link to TEP [transequatorial propagation]. He then worked XE2TT (DL44) on Es at 0117 UTC. I monitored during this time frame. No South [American stations were contacted], but [I] did decode K3VN (EL98) around 0050 UTC on Es."

Also from Jon on the same day:

"A rare March sporadic-E opening on 6 meters [occurred on] the afternoon of March 11,ÿfrom Kansas to W1, W2, W3, and W8.

"Here in Lawrence, I worked K3ISH (FN21) and KE8FD (EN80) on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 2100 UTC, [and copied] a few others.

"WQ0P (EM19) was in a better spot for it. He worked W1, W2, W3, W4, and W8.

"No rare DX, but any sporadic-E opening in March is noteworthy. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic E of any month of the year (see: www.qsl.net/pjdyer[2]).

"If the Es cloud had been located to the southeast [there could have been] a potential link-up with afternoon TEP. [I] did not see anyone working South America."

A tribute[3] to Maunder - of Maunder Minimum fame - and his wife, "Astronomer couple honoured with English Heritage blue plaque," appeared in the UK's Oxford Mail.

David Moore sent this obituary[4] of pioneering astronomer Eugene Parker - "Eugene Parker, astrophysicist namesake of NASA's Parker Solar Probe, dies at 94" - which appeared in Space.com[5].

Check out the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for March 10 - 16 were 90, 81, 93, 64, 82, 71, and 41, with a mean of 74.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 127.1, 126.5, 124.7, 122.9, 114.9, 110.4, and 106.6, with a mean of 119. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 20, 13, 40, 14, 7, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 15, 7, 30, 13, 5, and 3, with a mean of 11.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

ARRL member Tad Cook, K7RA, has been writing the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletins since 1991. Share[13] your reports and observations.


[1] https://pskreporter.info
[2] https://www.qsl.net/pjdyer
[3] https://bit.ly/3ihvjVO
[4] https://www.space.com/eugene-parker-solar-probe-scientist-dead
[5] http://www.space.com
[6] https://youtu.be/1VsmS6xl34s
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/01/2022

Many solar flares and CMEs occurred over the reporting week (March 24-30) but with glancing blows and near misses, it wasn't reflected in the geomagnetic indicators until Thursday, the last day in March.

The Planetary A index reached a high for the reporting week of 19 on March 27. Average daily planetary A index rose by a modest amount from 6.3 to 10.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 33.4 to 80.1, while solar flux went from 99.9 to 132.7.

The rising solar activity brought us a tremendous amount of 10 meter coverage. Every day I have received reports from all over North America from operators hearing my K7RA/B propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 145, and 130 on April 1-3, 115 on April 4-5,ÿ 110 on April 6-8, then 118, 115, and 110 on April 9-11, 105 on April 12-14, 108 on April 15, 105 on April 16-19, 110 on April 20-21, 115 on April 22, 125 on April 23-26, then 123, 118 and 118 on April 27-29, then 108 on April 30 through May 2, 112 on May 3, 115 on May 4-6, and 112 on May 4, then dropping to 105 through the middle of May.

The predicted planetary A index is 32, 10, 15 and 10 on April 1-4, 819, on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15 and 10 on April 22-24, then 5 on April 25-29, 12 and 8 on April 30 and May 1, and 5 0n May 2-15.ÿ

ÿ

Aÿreport from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:ÿ "We have a week of somewhat wilder development behind us. Its first indication were two sunspot groups on the northeastern limb of the solar disc on March 24. The second of them, region 2976 was larger.

"Region 2975 had a more complex magnetic structure and grew gradually. A proton solar flare was observed on March 28 at 1129 UTC, accompanied by a significant increase in proton levels. And above all, it was followed by a CME heading to Earth!

"Exactly as predicted, the arrival of the CME caused a geomagnetic disturbance on March 31. Its positive phase of development was accompanied, especially in the UTC morning hours, by a significant improvement in the shortwave propagation conditions on a global scale.

"Another solar flare was observed in the same area on March 30 with a maximum at 1737 UTC. Although X-ray levels rose more than on March 28, followed by CME again (albeit weaker, at 1823 UT),ÿ there is no expectation that it would be followed by a similar increase in geomagnetic activity."

ÿ

Angel Santana, WP3GW, of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote: "Conditions were decent for the contest last weekend. Ten meters was as good as last October but propagation is still improving, as stations were as high at 28.6 MHz, but on a great season stations would be heard beyond 29 MHz. With the new radios that have spectrum analyzers you can view this. On Sunday at 1420 UTC contacted a few European stations and even a 4X.

When I went to 15/20 meters, I had 85 percent success in contacting the stations. Overall, Iÿworked 324 stations and 64 DXCC entities.

"And there are a few stations from Spain on 10 meters at 2000 UTC, which is their local 10 PM. Really big signals. Cycle 25 is definitely rising."

ÿÿ

LA4LN reports 6 meter TEP activity:ÿ"I see that stations in southern Europe are reporting contacts with southern Africa and South America, across the magnetic equator.

"Likewise,US stations are making TEP contacts with stations in South America across the magnetic equator, with no F2 propagation possible on 50 MHz at this time, with an insufficient SFI (Solar Flux Index) for 50 MHz F2 propagation.

Seeing more TEP 'heard & worked' between southern Europe and southern Africa on the 6 meters band, across the magnetic equator via Dxmaps.com."ÿ

I often see references to the "magnetic equator" but did not know what it was. This gives a good explanation: https://bit.ly/38nV2u1[1]

ÿ

More from LA4LN: "In last week's bulletin you comments from N0JKÿspeculating about the first F2 openings on 50 MHz in the Solar Cycle 25.

"It must be mentioned that the SFI has been near 100 (he reported 95), and this is most likely too low SFI to cause F2 propagation on 50 MHz, according to my experience.

"Instead, during the last few weeks I've seen numerous reports of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) on 50 MHz, with radio amateurs in mainly the southern states of USA working South America - and with radio amateurs in southern Europe working southern Africa and South America.

"It is important to note that the TEP is aligned over the magnetic equator on Earth (not aligned over the geographic equator). TEP is well described in the ARRL literature."

ÿ

We normally get our 10.7 cm solar flux staight from the source, the DRAO observatory in Penticton, British Columbia: https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0[2].ÿBut since March 18, there has been no new data, so we rely on NOAA as a secondary source, which is why we have recently presented solar flux numbers that are not resolved to 0.1 but instead are from this source, which is also our source for daily sunspot numbers: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[3].ÿDRAO Penticton has not answered any e-mail inquiries or phone calls, so we wait.

ÿ

Some of the interesting articles and images this week:

-- https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0[4]

--https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej[5]

--https://bit.ly/3LvufKd[6]

--https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn[7]

ÿÿ

NN4X sent a Pskreporter map showing his 10 meter signal at 1710 UTC on March 29 being received all around the world, including South Africa, Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and across North America. That was just one of many, many 10 meter reports this week.

ÿ

An exciting new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:ÿ https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc[8]

ÿÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30, 2022 were 44, 50, 48, 97, 125, 124, and 73, with a mean of 80.1.. 10.7 cm flux was 112, 112, 119, 130, 156, 149, and 151, with a mean of 132.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 18, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 3, 6, 11, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/38nV2u1
[2] https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0
[3] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[4] https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0
[5] https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej
[6] https://bit.ly/3LvufKd
[7] https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn
[8] https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/08/2022

Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers, instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory led nowhere, but now the data is back online at https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC[1] .

I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of 239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the 10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April 2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to 14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March and predicts even more for April. They also report that cycle 25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions. A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1, another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

The predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April 18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30, 130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5 on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

Solar wind in the news: https://bit.ly/3rdXycD[2]

F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. On April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

"The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2 and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

"In further development, we first expect a decline in solar activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the development will be slightly irregular."

Another informative video forecast from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ[3]

WB8VLC reports from Oregon: "Another fun week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM activity. However, the SSB/CW activity was strong with signals to South Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island and Australia.

It is interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

A small portion of his log:

April 3 it was New Zealand in the morning and Australia at night, followed by China and Philippinesÿ

2344 UTCÿ ÿN7ET/DU7ÿ 28.014ÿ CW 599 Philippines

2340 UTCÿ ÿBV1ELÿ ÿ ÿ28.010ÿ CW 599 Taiwan

2311 UTCÿ ÿVK3NX ÿ ÿ28.015ÿ CW 599 Australia

1900 UTCÿ ÿZS3Yÿ ÿ ÿ 28.373ÿ SSB 55 South Africa

K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas: "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. Using FT8 on 6 meters on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in Ecuador while running 30 W to an indoor dipole wrapped around a couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end.

"That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6). My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Columbia and Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked an Argentinian on 6.

"Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on 6 except a few locals and those South American stations. The north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

Speaking of "narrow pipelines," from here in the northwest I often see this on 10 and 12 meters using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info[4], on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12 meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South Carolina.

Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports had spread to New York, Georgia andÿ Florida, and the mileage range expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major exception, HK3A in Bogota, Columbia at 4091 miles.

The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida.ÿ All of this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an UnUn and autotuner.

Thanks to KA7F for this link: https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8[5]

Cycle 25's increasing activity is drawing the attention of the media. In this instance it is KTAR in Arizona: https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p[6]

And more from Southgate Amateur Radio: https://bit.ly/38BbEOW[7]

Fascinating solar phenomena: https://bit.ly/3ra65NV[8]

EarthSky reports an exciting week for solar observers: https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/[9]

ÿN0JK reports: "On Saturday April 2, 2022, NOLL (EM09) I copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and KOSIX (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More useful information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022, were 84, 109, 118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was 149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of 135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC
[2] https://bit.ly/3rdXycD
[3] https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ
[4] http://pskreporter.info
[5] https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8
[6] https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p
[7] https://bit.ly/38BbEOW
[8] https://bit.ly/3ra65NV
[9] https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/06/2022

www.spaceweather.com[1] reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio

blackout over the Middle East and Africa.

Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk[2]

A recent flare update:

https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8[3]

Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see
sunspots every day.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.

Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with
average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle
latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.

Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping
below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the
predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
dramatically.

For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at, http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05[4] .

Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May
9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on
May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May
25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and
100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,
then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May
9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8
on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,
15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,
and 8 on June 9-11.

These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of
the USAF 557th Weather Wing.

Recent flare activity in the news:

https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq[5]

https://bit.ly/38YBfRO[6]

https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX[7]

https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM[8]

https://bit.ly/3FhULFc[9]

Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:

https://bit.ly/3kLmchd[10]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere from OK1HH:

"We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was
usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare
finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to
observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old
World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the
ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our
shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.

"The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then
could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline
and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually
appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active
area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.

"Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,
with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,
they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which
indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group
3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least
one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we
will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation
conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."

KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:

"On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received
WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.
Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.

"The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

"Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite
service.

"WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to
operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,
SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

"Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving
about 300 watts of ERP."

Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,
and South Africa.

Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:

https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html[11] .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,
36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,
123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.
Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with
a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and
6, with a mean of 9.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3vKzelk
[3] https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8
[4] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05
[5] https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq
[6] https://bit.ly/38YBfRO
[7] https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX
[8] https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM
[9] https://bit.ly/3FhULFc
[10] https://bit.ly/3kLmchd
[11] https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/14/2022

We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10 meters, always surprising and exciting.

Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by the numbers.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as 2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own estimate based on available data.

Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then 118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May 28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June 8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on June 18-20.

Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then 14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic stability for more than 2 weeks.

Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S. Air Force.

OK1HH wrote: "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low, which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above the solar surface are mostly closed.

"An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355 UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure. Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption.ÿ

"Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

"Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth to intensify again."

The Dellinger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance[1]

Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event: https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg[2]

More on this event:

https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0[3]

https://bit.ly/3NgULrX[4]

Mystery of the bright spots: https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa[5]

WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji": "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8. I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

"He was decoded here in Salinas, California. CM96 for an hour and a half with no takers. Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

"I will go back to my saying: Gotta be in the right place at the right
time and get lucky!ÿ Heads up!"

K5JRN wrote: "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin, TX, to the Miami, FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

Aÿmassive solar flare, almost: https://bit.ly/3Maqvij[6]

Solar cycle progress update from NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[7]
Real time geomagnetic updates: https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm[8]

The latest Space Weather from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg [9]
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71, 62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2, 118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.6.

ÿ


[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance
[2] https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg
[3] https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0
[4] https://bit.ly/3NgULrX
[5] https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa
[6] https://bit.ly/3Maqvij
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[8] https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm
[9] https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/20/2022

ÿSolar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux from 120.3 to 157.3.

To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three, then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for solar flux.ÿ A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers and 138.4 for solar flux.

This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than the official cycle prediction by the experts.ÿ

Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting period, which always runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday.ÿ

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014 doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24 hours of activity:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff[1]ÿ

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe[2]ÿ

Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May 21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29, then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at 140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145 on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June 23-24.ÿ

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5 on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24, and 5 for at least the following ten days.ÿ

The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF Weather wing.ÿ

The Sun busts out a trio of flares:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF[3]ÿ

OK1HH wrote:ÿ

"In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously."ÿ

(I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA)ÿ

"Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355 UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta.ÿ

"During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.ÿ

"No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did not arrive on Earth.ÿ

"The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average, increased further since 15 May."ÿ

"Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:ÿ

"Activity level: mostly moderate

X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6

Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195

Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X

(0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)

Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230


"Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."


"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:


"Quiet: May 21-23

Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26

Active: May 19, 24

Minor storm: possible May 24

Major storm: 0

Severe storm: 0

"Geomagnetic activity summary:

"Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

"About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

"Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

"Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at 0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well. Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!"ÿ

On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles) and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles).ÿ

This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California (713 miles).ÿ

On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231 UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in Alabama.ÿ

WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X.ÿ

Check out this web site:ÿ

https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile[4]ÿ

Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center:ÿ

https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php[5]ÿ

The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence:ÿ

https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html[6]ÿ

Here is a site that talks about 17 flares:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8[7]ÿ

Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do they affect Earth?" with nice graphics:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF[8]ÿ

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].ÿ

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at, http://k9la.us/[13] .ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at, http://arrl.org/bulletins .ÿ

Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129, 173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133, 149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7, with a mean of 9.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff
[2] https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe
[3] https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF
[4] https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile
[5] https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php
[6] https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html
[7] https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8
[8] https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/27/2022

ÿ

Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow, steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870 on May 25.

AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

https://bit.ly/39UwBVA[1]

There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX[2]

Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead sunspot group:

https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd[3]

The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday prediction.

Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May 30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and 6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then 160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16 to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to 31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14, then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then 10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

"The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116, while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Recent flare news:

https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc[4]

NN4X wrote:

"There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

EX8MLE 1618 UTCÿ

9V1XX 1619 UTCÿ

DS4FWI 1620 UTCÿ

VU2CPL 1627 UTC

Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the morning.

15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8 coverage for his signal.

From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot regions:

https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d[5]

Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday night:

"Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579ÿ Path: 7,827 miles

Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

73, Louÿ WD5GLO-EM15AHÿ Oklahoma"

On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

"Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10 meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around 1600 to 1800 UTC.

Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at 2500 miles.

But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a few stations elsewhere.

The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge concentration of Florida stations.

Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

Carl replied:

"Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF. The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough sunspots for shorter distances.

The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the highest for paths of that length.ÿ Thus your FL and XE paths could be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north, which means a lower MUF.

The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and one Es hop for Nebraska."

On May 25th I replied:

"Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12 meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage up the east coast."

Carl responded:

"That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

"Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc[6].

You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm[7]

Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA[8]

This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H) because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com[9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138, 132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2, 165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.

ÿ

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/39UwBVA
[2] https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX
[3] https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd
[4] https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc
[5] https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d
[6] https://ft8.chaos.cc
[7] https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm
[8] https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA
[9] https://www.cqwpx.com
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/03/2022

ÿAt 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

"A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at this point in solar cycle 25.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to 12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18, then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29, 98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140 on July 4 to 9.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June 5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12 and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and 14 on July 9 and 10.

OK1HH wrote:

"Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current 25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in 1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current speed' and it is not the only condition.

After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th, followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only exceptionally. The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits us around mid-June."

Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS[1]

Interesting.

https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm[2]

https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[3]

N0JK wrote on May 31:

"There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10 meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made 16 contacts.

I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

KA3JAW reports:

"On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700 MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300 watts ERP.

This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles, azimuth 298 deg."

More on 8 meter experimental stations:

https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb[4]

Nice images:

https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs[5]

Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA[6]

Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42, 40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6, 101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a mean of 11.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS
[2] https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm
[3] https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
[4] https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb
[5] https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs
[6] https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/10/2022

Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week. Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week and 158.8 the week before.

News about the first spotless day can be found here:

https://bit.ly/39cOiQk[1]

I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged, bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July 6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and 123 the next.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14, and 5 on July 15-19.

Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the official forecast:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle[2]

According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the highest it's been in eight years.

OK1HH wrote:

"As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in the last two weeks.

"On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

"This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours, rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

"https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov[3]

"It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase solar activity again.

"The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an increase in activity on June 6.

"The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June 6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual improvement can be expected in the coming days."

W9NY wrote:

"Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

"Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

"The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New Zealand."

Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape Vincent, New York.

On pskreporter.info[4] I saw that my signal was propagating along a very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a 32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79 degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91 degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at 2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC, VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

Here is an article about aurora:

https://bit.ly/398hPdM[5]

Mostly good info, except the statement about being halfway through this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be halfway toward the peak.

Here is a link about the K-index:

https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc[6]

Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B[7]

https://bit.ly/3x9WNna[8]

Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

https://bit.ly/3NILWYo[9]

More information here:

https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a[10]

Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

https://bit.ly/3zqGu87[11]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45, 23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7, 100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/39cOiQk
[2] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
[3] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov
[4] http://pskreporter.info
[5] https://bit.ly/398hPdM
[6] https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc
[7] https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B
[8] https://bit.ly/3x9WNna
[9] https://bit.ly/3NILWYo
[10] https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a
[11] https://bit.ly/3zqGu87
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/17/2022

Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3 during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June 15.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux, but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux reading of the day, and the one we report here.

You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk[1] .

The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June 19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105, 110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is 8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July 20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[2] . Updates are posted every afternoon, North America time.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE) M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

"The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon of June 15.

"Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival, when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at 0556 UTC.ÿ The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in reaction to CME effects.

"The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in the decline and an overall worsening.

"Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Here are some solar flare updates:

https://bit.ly/3xvycJO[3]

https://bit.ly/3O0re6B[4]

Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of sporadic-E:

https://bit.ly/39zqIxk[5]

Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

https://bit.ly/3QubESn[6]

Go to https://www.spaceweather.com[7] and look for an article that appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

Look for this fascinating map:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg[8] .

It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure conductivity.

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and 8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at predictions for Friday.

Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day[9] .

A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A[10]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5, 112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of 9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with a mean of 10.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk
[2] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
[3] https://bit.ly/3xvycJO
[4] https://bit.ly/3O0re6B
[5] https://bit.ly/39zqIxk
[6] https://bit.ly/3QubESn
[7] https://www.spaceweather.com
[8] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg
[9] http://www.arrl.org/field-day
[10] https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/24/2022

This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day to finally reach 80 on June 22.

One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one more on June 18, and another on June 21.

Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com. Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the

daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun blanketed with sunspots!

Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and 110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing geomagnetic instability.

Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB[1]

The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at 120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105 on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138, 134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23, 100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through August 2.

The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13, 12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10 on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall solar activity level were quite reliable.

"The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

"The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF) were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic-E layer played the most important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY[2]

A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be found at:

https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx[3]

I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a respite from national tragedies?

The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU[4]

https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP[5]

https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA[6]

https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI[7]

https://bit.ly/39R3SBu[8]

https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c[9]

https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ[10]

https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC[11]

https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs[12]

https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC[13]

https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8[14]

https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun[15]

https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O[16]

https://bit.ly/3OjuY38[17]

https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q[18]

https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO[19]

https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo[20]

https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe[21]

https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/[22]

https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5[23]

https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH[24]

https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb[25]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[26] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[27] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[28] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[29] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[30] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[31] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[32] .

Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145, 120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7, 148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10, 10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB
[2] https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY
[3] https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx
[4] https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU
[5] https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP
[6] https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA
[7] https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI
[8] https://bit.ly/39R3SBu
[9] https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c
[10] https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ
[11] https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC
[12] https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs
[13] https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC
[14] https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8
[15] https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun
[16] https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O
[17] https://bit.ly/3OjuY38
[18] https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q
[19] https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO
[20] https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo
[21] https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe
[22] https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/
[23] https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5
[24] https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH
[25] https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb
[26] k7ra@arrl.net
[27] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[28] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[29] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[30] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[31] http://k9la.us/
[32] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/01/2022

Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same. Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased absorption.ÿ The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the end of the UTC Day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed here: https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9[1]

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped from 140.5 to 105.3.

Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as the previous week, all numbers around 11.

The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July 2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10, 140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20, and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26, 100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30 through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again on August 7 to 12.

Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to 25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5 to 7.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the last seven days.ÿ Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26(G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25and 26) and was lower on June 28 and
29.ÿ On June 26, a big, bright CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere.ÿ A slow-moving CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30.ÿ The near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion. Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26 and 27.ÿ After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due to the declining solar activity."

A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk[2]

Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

"After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level during the coming seven days.

More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and 4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7. Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level." Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv[3]

https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4[4]

How big is our nearest star?

https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6[5]

Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF[6]

Storm watch, from the popular press:

https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs[7]

Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g[8]

It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to propagation:

http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com[9]

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33, 32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4, 108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.7.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9
[2] https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk
[3] https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv
[4] https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4
[5] https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6
[6] https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF
[7] https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs
[8] https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g
[9] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/08/2022

On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm underway, with possible increase to G-2 class.ÿ They said it was caused by a co-rotating interaction region.ÿ The storm subsided, but then came back early on July 8.

Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:

https://bit.ly/3bYQImG[1]

Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on the left?ÿ Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin.ÿ Your input would be appreciated.

When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:

https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh[2]

The left column of K indices starts at 0300 UTC and repeat every three hours.ÿ At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is assigned.

For an even more up to date indicator, I check here: https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ[3]. Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left corner.

Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6.ÿ But oddly, average daily solar flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.

Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.

Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class geomagnetic storm.ÿ In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K index was 4, then 5.ÿ Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25 on July 2.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13 and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July 20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July 26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31, 112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8, 110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98 on August 12 to 15.

Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and 15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.

The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th Weather Wing.ÿ See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC[4] for an article about their operation.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions.ÿ This was followed by a slight worsening.ÿ Then we observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the sporadic E layer since 6 July.ÿ There was an even greater chance for so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.

A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm." Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:

https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4[5]

Earthsky update:ÿ

https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V[6]

Thanks to Max White for this:

https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt[7]

https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0[8]

Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57, 42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98, 100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.8.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.7.


[1] https://bit.ly/3bYQImG
[2] https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh
[3] https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ
[4] https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC
[5] https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4
[6] https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V
[7] https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt
[8] https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0
[9] http://arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/15/2022

Rising solar activity over the past reporting week (July 7 to 13) was reflected in increased sunspot numbers and solar flux and rising geomagnetic activity as well.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 62.6 to 102.1, with the peak value at 134 on Monday, July 11.ÿ Average daily solar flux rose from 103.5 to 147.4, with peak values at 164.9 and 164.8 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A new sunspot emerged on July 7, another on July 10, and one more on July 11.ÿ Total sunspot area peaked on July 11.

Planetary A index averaged out at 12.4 (up from 9.8 last week) while the middle-latitude A index went from 9.7 to 10.6.

Toward the end of the UTC day on July 7, Alaska's college A index was 46, a very high value, while the last four K index readings of the day and the next two were 6, 6, 7, 5, 5 and 5.

This was caused by a co-rotating interaction region, sparking a G-1 class geomagnetic storm.

Look here for info on co-rotating interaction regions:

https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp[1]

https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm[2]

https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU[3]

The Thursday night prediction from USAF shows improvement from the Wednesday outlook, with solar flux at 170 on July 15 and 16, 165 on July 17 and 18, 160 on July 19 and 20, then 155 and 145 on July 21 and 22, 135 on July 23 and 24, then 138 and 148 on July 25 and 26, 150 on July 27 to 29, 160 on July 30 clear out to August 7, then 155, 145 and 135 on August 8 to 10, 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, then 130 on August 15 to 17, and 135 on August 18 to 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 15 to 21, then 10, 20 and 12 on July 22 to 24, 8 again on July 25 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, and 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 on August 21 through the end of the month.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity continued to rise as predicted, a little faster than we anticipated.ÿ The area of sunspots increased significantly. We observed several long and large filaments, especially on July 11 and 12. Geomagnetically calmer days 9 and 10 and 13 and 14 July were replaced by G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions on July 8 and 12. The influx of protons of solar origin intensified after the July 9 eruption (with a maximum at 1348 UT) lasted until July 12. Shortwave propagation conditions varied erratically, worst on 8 July, better starting on 11 July."

W5CTD wrote on July 9 that the previous Saturday he was playing around with a 20 meter Hustler mobile antenna mag-mounted on his car.

He was puzzled at first when he heard stations calling "CQ Contest", til he looked it up and found out it was the IARU DX Contest.

Chuck did not mention what mode he used, so I will assume it was SSB.ÿ He was surprised to work many European stations, in fact, the list seemed to include all the European countries.

Signals were strong, and he noted that his antenna was non-directional, and on his car parked on the street.

The opening lasted from 0200 to 0400 UTC, but by 0430 the opening was over. "One improbable and amazing night."

KS7T in Montana, who I worked recently on 17 meter FT8, sent me this in an email, which I edited:

"I accidentally came across condx on 15 meter CW during the IARU contest that I haven't experienced there since the ARRL CW contest back in February 2000 when I was working Europe from Montana at 2 am local MST.

20 started showing some signs of fading to EU right before 11 a.m. local and when that happens my instinct usually switches me to 40 but not this time.ÿ My subconscious was begging me to check out 15. So I did.ÿ First I heard a B4 (China?), so tuned around expecting to hear JAs.ÿ There were none, but what I did hear was many headquarters signals from all over EU.ÿ Had been on 15 earlier in the daytime and heard and worked two of those plus CR3DX, but that was it.

I wasn't expecting to work any of those EU stns I just heard because a lot of them were weak, a few were S9 but fired up on 15 and just had to give 'em a call.ÿ Well, not only did I work all 19 of them, but on first call, too.ÿ Had 22 qs in all between 11pm and midnight on 15.

The other 3 were two VK stns and the B4 who was a struggle.ÿ He got my call OK but took several minutes to get the 06 through to him.

Last night got on 6 and it had a bit of an opening to the east coast but just a few 4s and 2 1s were seen.ÿ Worked some 9s and K4RW in SC.

I have 44 states and one JA on 6 meters since 2020 either with my tribander or a homebrew 6 el vertical beam on the ground running 50w.

I don't think I have ever seen a year like this one propagation wise in my 66 years in ham radio.ÿ It has been quite frustrating at times but also very surprising, too."

New video a few days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM[4]

Next week I hope to get reports from N2CG about his WM2XCS 8 meter (49 MHz) beacon.

Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13, 2022 were 80, 81, 89, 113, 134, 117, and 101, with a mean of 102.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 129.6, 136.9, 153, 161, 164.9, and 164.8, with a mean of 147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 19, 6, 7, 12, 18, and 5, with a mean of 12.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 15, 14, 6, 8, 10, 16, and 5, with a mean of 10.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp
[2] https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm
[3] https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU
[4] https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM/
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/22/2022

Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20, with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was 171.4 on July 15.

Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26 and middle latitude A index at 19.ÿ Alaska's high latitude college A index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000 UTC.

Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to 9.4.

A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing

solar wind to stream in.ÿ It is documented here:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg[1]

At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.ÿ An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams."

Here is the latest forecast from USAF.ÿ Predicted solar flux seems promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through August 7 and again from August 26 through early September. Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25, then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21 and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

OK1HH wrote:

"A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT.ÿ Twenty-two years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system. The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere. Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a ground-level event.ÿ And if solar activity continues to grow as it is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our planet's magnetosphere.ÿ The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare).ÿ The high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the CME.ÿ Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

Rich, K1HTV wrote:

"Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as the Ontario area.

At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap Virginia QTH.ÿ I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX, all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied but did not work VK4HJ.

I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT, WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6 Meter DX contact.ÿ VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band. The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5 earlier in the day of the opening.ÿ Was it F2 skip?ÿ Was it TEP? Was it SSSP?ÿ (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3[2]).

It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es opening from the East to Mid-America at the time.ÿ I'll leave it up to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

"A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time.ÿ Saw many people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK stations.ÿ What a great opening!

As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings.ÿ So sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the geomagnetic equator.ÿ I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past summers on 6 in a similar fashion.ÿ The high solar flux helped the TEP part of the path.ÿ But sporadic-E created the magic."

George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special permission from the FCC.ÿ Below is an edited version of some of the notes he sent me.

"Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7 MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on 40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ AR'.ÿ I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on my experimental license.

I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST 539."

WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net[3].

I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card. Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST report, mode and any remarks.

If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with.ÿ As 8m propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are allowed to operate on 8m.

I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band[4] for some surprising history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153, 166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 169, 171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a mean of 9.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,with a mean of 9.


[1] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg
[2] https://bit.ly/3oswSD3
[3] http://verizon.net
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band
[5] https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/29/2022

Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27, showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July 21, and another on July 25.

Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last week.ÿ Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely.ÿ In ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and average daily solar flux only 81.3.

A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1! That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots.ÿ It means there was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11, because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August 2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then 120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118 on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31, 115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4.ÿ Solar flux peaks again at 130 on September 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July 31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5 to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

https://bit.ly/3votD3A[1]

OK1HH wrote on July 28:

"Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily decreasing.ÿ From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of flares' announcement today.ÿ But we observed some interesting anomalies.ÿ For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions around 1400 and 1930 UTC. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC.ÿ The impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and North America.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence solar wind starting July 29.ÿ Geomagnetic activity will increase again."

KD6JUI wrote:

"I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP.ÿ Today, Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted MUF of about 14 MHz.

When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after a Swiss station.ÿ I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m.ÿ A couple hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s).ÿ My loop antenna was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with my signal.ÿ Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted F8IHE almost immediately.ÿ All he could copy was my call sign, but that was enough for me!

Always a surprise."

What are sunspots?

https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW[2]

Fun Morse Code app:

https://morsle.fun/help/[3]

A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed Test, every Friday and Sunday:

http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80, 100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 121.7, 114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 10.4.


[1] https://bit.ly/3votD3A
[2] https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW
[3] https://morsle.fun/help/
[4] http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/05/2022

Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at 95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous seven days at 52.ÿ Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous seven day average at 108.8.ÿ The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008 with average solar flux at 95.4.

To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages against the same numbers from last year.ÿ In the 2021 version of ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from the current average.

The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and 12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons. I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833 MHz. ÿThe outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and Strandness on Thursday. The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few days.

Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9, 112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14, 100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98 on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to 28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September 1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on September 11 and 12.

Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then 5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8 on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12. OK1HH wrote:

"Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic field quiet to unsettled.ÿ Shortwave propagation conditions were average to slightly below average.

An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb. But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot.ÿ So big it is changing the way the sun vibrates.ÿ Helioseismic maps reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb! The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast on July 29.

https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc[1]

Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon subscribers:

"This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes

and solar eye candy.ÿ Although we aren't expecting any strong storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then again sporadically next week).ÿ This might give aurora photographers at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any better than the weak shows we got this past week.

Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal reception (and transmission)."

I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next few days on our Sun:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[2]

On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe sunspots arriving soon.ÿ The horizon is at -90 degrees.

Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a very limited view of the sun.

I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might cost twenty-million dollars.ÿ Or perhaps a brand new advanced design?ÿ Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by space flight could make this happen.

Newsweek has solar news:

https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB[3]

Large sunspot emerging:

https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ[4]

Ginormous:

https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to: k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27, 39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8, 94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.7.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a mean of 8.6.


[1] https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc
[2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[3] https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB
[4] https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ
[5] https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A
[6] http://arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/12/2022

Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at 116 on September 2 to 4.ÿ The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday evening was improved from Wednesday.

A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle progress.ÿ A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average solar flux was just 74.8.ÿ Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9 during the past week.

Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15 to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102, 100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30, then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to 4, 112 on September 5 to 7.ÿ 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to 16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16 then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

OK1HH commented:

"A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located (or selected from several locations).ÿ Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7 (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement).ÿ STEVE is a recent discovery.ÿ It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE[1]

It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved.ÿ The development continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the following days.ÿ With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August).ÿ They are also called the 'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

NASA expects increasing activity:

https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5[2]

Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[3]

Yet another cycle prediction method:

https://bit.ly/3SKm29J[4]

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground effects:

https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87, 63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2, 116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with a mean of 14.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15, and 10, with a mean of 12.1.


[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE
[2] https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5
[3] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[4] https://bit.ly/3SKm29J
[5] https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/19/2022

At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days.ÿ There is a chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing.ÿ They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long exposure time.ÿ This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora photos are done this way and viewing with the naked eye you see a much less dramatic image.

Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week, to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17.ÿ Average daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this week.

But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August 21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108 on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to 10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6, and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September 24 to 26.

OK1HH writes:

"A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase very slowly.ÿ Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased.ÿ On August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs.ÿ The solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16.ÿ In the meantime, eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field, continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that caused minor shortwave radio blackouts.ÿ The strongest eruption to date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two).ÿ The forecast for a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to 19.

Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M for the third consecutive day.ÿ The most recent, an M2 explosion on 17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.

But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone.ÿ So the disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth directly.

The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF.ÿ The best day was August 17.ÿ A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF occurred on 18 August.ÿ In the following days, the solar flare activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to decrease.ÿ A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo[1]

Even Newsweek is reporting it:

https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw[2]

https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg[3]

And of course, British tabloids:

https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc[4]

And NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3A537Ob[5]

Violent solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw[6]

Strong storm:

https://bit.ly/3c998kT[7]

Aurora in Montana:

https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK[8]

Radiation storm!

https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR[9]

John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta, Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho. My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.'ÿÿ Where do 'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle minimum than I am now.ÿ The station is the same for the entire period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is more active.'ÿÿ As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at 33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees would be high.

I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity, there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the disturbance closer to the poles.

You might notice better propagation from Atlanta.ÿ I've noticed using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE states and nothing here in the northwest.ÿ Don't know why that is, but gradually the propagation will drift out this way.ÿ So Atlanta being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get it here.ÿ It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest, what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116, 104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 114.8, 119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with a mean of 11.7.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and 22, with a mean of 10.


[1] https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo
[2] https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw
[3] https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg
[4] https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc
[5] https://bit.ly/3A537Ob
[6] https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw
[7] https://bit.ly/3c998kT
[8] https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK
[9] https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/26/2022

On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day.ÿ Total sunspot area more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week, August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8 during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from 123.7 to 104.5.

Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this week's report.

The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at 130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115 on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then 128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September 17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and 100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28 through October 1.

Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8 on September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September 3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on September 23, thenÿ 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4, an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and Sadovsky.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

"The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the previous sunspot, AR3078.

"Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth. Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.

"Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near the central meridian.

"With the current type of development, predictions of further events are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj[1]

British tabloid sunspot news:

https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz[2]

Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy[3]

A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3csY16x[4]

A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from American Geophysical Union:

https://bit.ly/3R95HcW[5]

From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

https://bit.ly/3AL32AS[6]

Here is a paper on solar rotations:

https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux[7]

I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle." The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56, 44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4, 101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 11.
ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj
[2] https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz
[3] https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy
[4] https://bit.ly/3csY16x
[5] https://bit.ly/3R95HcW
[6] https://bit.ly/3AL32AS
[7] https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/02/2022

The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at 1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300 UTC number of 133.5 instead.

I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported, "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux measurements."

Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily 2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar flux data.

Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on Thursday. Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL Letter.

Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and 118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then 118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102 on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and 108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on October 5-8.

Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September 2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, 5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:ÿ "Disturbed conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective direction are expected September 3-5."

Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

"The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30, was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30 August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of the so-called present active longitudes.

"Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude. CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic activity, but only at first approach.

"However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity, confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar activity can be expected a few days later."

I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[2]. This way I can see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective signal reports.

On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away. But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12 meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252 UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at 7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649 miles.

Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting, from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312 UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the earlier report.

At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese stations.

Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news recently:

https://bit.ly/3q5XACl[3]

And Forbes.

https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G[4]

Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a RSGB member could inform us.

https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF[5]

Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's own Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY[6]

In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only. I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy[7]

EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1[8]

A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4[9]

Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt[10]

Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm[11]

This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd[12]

From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3[13]

Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa[14]

Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa[15]

More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN[16]

Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE[17]

Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv[18]

Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy[19]

The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.

Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa[20]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[21].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[22] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[23] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[24] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[25] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[26] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[27] .

Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79, 87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6, 127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and 12, with a mean of 9.4.


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[2] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[3] https://bit.ly/3q5XACl
[4] https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G
[5] https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF
[6] https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY
[7] https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy
[8] https://bit.ly/3wRStK1
[9] https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4
[10] https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt
[11] https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm
[12] https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd
[13] https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa
[15] https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa
[16] https://bit.ly/3e5ninN
[17] https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE
[18] https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv
[19] https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy
[20] https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa
[21] k7ra@arrl.net
[22] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[23] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[24] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[25] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[26] http://k9la.us/
[27] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/09/2022

ÿThis week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5, another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the average for the previous seven days.

But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely above the average for the previous seven days.

Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from 9.4 to 17.4.

September 4 was the most active day when planetary A index was 64. On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September 14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September 17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120 on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1.ÿ Otherwise,ÿ 8 on September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15 on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8 on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September 30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk.ÿ Its position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days, since September 4.ÿ Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of a rift in the Earth's magnetic field.ÿ The solar wind flow from the large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4 and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun.ÿ These were AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really long tail above the surface of the Sun.ÿ It was a filament coming out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar atmosphere.ÿ Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool, dark plasma.

Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet.ÿ The solar disk was dotted by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance of flares was low.

Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th. Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days.ÿ Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance on September 6.ÿ An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of the disturbance on September 4.

Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14 September is expected."

I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation recently.ÿ Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only stations in Florida were receiving my signal.ÿ It looks very odd on the map.ÿ Florida does have a very large ham population, but this just seems so peculiar.

Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was.ÿ I paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something, the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading was 246.9.ÿ The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's bulletin:ÿ https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg[1]

Two massive sunspots:ÿ https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI[2]

Longtime contributor David Moore sent this:ÿ https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL[3]

Big explosion:ÿ https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC[4]

Our angry sun:ÿ https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg[5]

So huge:ÿ https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9].ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11].ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62, 79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8, 123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14, with a mean of 24.6.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.


[1] https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg
[2] https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI
[3] https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL
[4] https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC
[5] https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg
[6] https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/16/2022

Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14, when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4 to 10.6.

New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September 10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240, the highest value in over a month.

The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut AirForce Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125 on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30 through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14 on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12 on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5 on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October 22-24.

The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

Nice solar video from last month:

https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm[1]

Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion[2]

Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

"Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

"Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630 UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes. Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

"Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is expected after September 20th."

The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky:

"With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12 meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX stations back-to-back on SSB.

"I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that, stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

"Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100 watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

"Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed 182 DX entities on 12 alone.

"I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

"I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

"I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356 UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

"Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they didn't know where the band edge was.

"A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ [3]. I monitor it constantly. It tells me what bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has other interesting data in the menu."

Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html[4]

Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10 meters seems dead.

Here is more crazy solar news:

https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd[5]

Here is Newsweek again:

https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS[6]

Some solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i[7]

Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122, 113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6, 126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and 10, with a mean of 10.6.


[1] https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
[3] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[4] https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html
[5] https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd
[6] https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS
[7] https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i
[8] https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/23/2022

Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
numbers and solar flux.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
hope it may signal a trend.

But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
until Summer 2025.

Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
on September 21.

Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
122 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
Force Base.

Are sunspots really black?ÿ A report can be found here:

https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black[1]

Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox is today, Friday,
September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
for HF propagation.

Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX[2]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

"On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

"On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
earthward CME.

"On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
- which doubled in size the next day.

"On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

"On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

"Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

"Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen.ÿ They remained at
average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by
https://pskreporter.info[3] from stations in Florida.

At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
other.ÿ Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
along the same arc as the North America stations.

I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
to a very specific location.

Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather[4]

On September 22, https://spaceweather.com[5] reported three big
sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

Here is always a good reference:

https://solarmonitor.org/[6]

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/[7]

Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[8]

The SOHO site:

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/[9]

Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
threat:

https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [15]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 6.9.

ÿ


[1] https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black
[2] https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX
[3] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[4] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather
[5] https://spaceweather.com
[6] https://solarmonitor.org/
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
[8] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[9] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
[10] https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/30/2022

Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
138.4.

So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
expect the numbers to track more closely.

New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com[1]
blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN[2] .

The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

"Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM."

Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
Letter on Thursday.

Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
3-10.

Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

From OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

"Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

"The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
without a computer. I will add more next time.

"An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
activity during the night of September 24-25.

"Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
activity.

"Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
September 30 and especially October 1!

"http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[3] - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
from last weekend:

https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ[4]

An article on solar research:

https://bit.ly/3dPm40p[5]

Newsweek is at it again:

https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e[6]

I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
Coast of North America.

You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
Just go to the pskreporter map page at
https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[7] and select the band you are
interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
"the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
"Using" field select FT8.

Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
received, including signal levels.

You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
since I last saw that station's signal.

The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
hours.

Have fun!

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
3, with a mean of 10.4.

ÿ


[1] https://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN
[3] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
[4] https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ
[5] https://bit.ly/3dPm40p
[6] https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e
[7] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] https://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/07/2022

Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29 through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30, one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday, October 6.

I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago and with higher sunspot numbers.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9, then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130 on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155 on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130 on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130 on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10, 5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16, then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22 to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8 on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot", AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's eastern horizon.ÿ They predict this could produce two weeks of high solar activity.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following conditions would be calmer.ÿ This assumption was shattered after AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and October 2.

However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group, but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active region.ÿ It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific and parts of North America.ÿ Apparently, it blasted a CME into space.

This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar disk.

It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the following days.

Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.ÿ The plasma clouds are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8 October."

Big filament.

https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC[1]

https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ[2]

The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME[3]

https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
ÿhttp://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] .ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56, 74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean of 149.2.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16, and 14, with a mean of 12.7.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2, 9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.


[1] https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC
[2] https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ
[3] https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME
[4] https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/14/2022

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
149.2 to 155.3.

A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
is better than predicted.

October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day Spaceweather.com[1] warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS[2] and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp[3] .

Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
the first week in November at 160.

The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
November 18-22.

With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
ends.

"Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
magnetosphere calm down.

"The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
smaller AR3116.

"All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

"Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
propagation.

"We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
be replaced by an increase later in October."

John, W2QL wrote:

"I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
UTC, -18 dB.

"My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
to be F2.

"10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
Kansas.

"Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

"Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
car."

Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
aurora:

https://bit.ly/3CQEveO[4]

Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
cannot kill it.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3T82fQS
[3] https://bit.ly/3evItjp
[4] https://bit.ly/3CQEveO
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/21/2022

Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
(October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
119.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
to 8.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
and one more on October 20.

I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
first week in November.

Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
week in December.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
deeper into the Fall season.

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

"A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

"From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

"Signals were strong.

"The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

"Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

"In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

"It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
again.

"We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
from the last days of October onward."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4[1]

Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

"For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
which is very active.

"You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

"This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

"Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
11pm their local time.

"So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
across 10 meters.

Bob, KB1DK writes:

"I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

"The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
month of use. I highly recommend the website.

"Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

"The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
working stations from the west coast."

The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com[2] .

A new photo of a solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 10.4.
ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4
[2] https://prop.kc2g.com
[3] https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/28/2022

Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
Perhaps this is a promising sign.

The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
what I mean:

https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB[1]

I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

"Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

"Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
off.

Here is what he sent me:

A index (Boulder)ÿÿÿÿÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ 7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
A index (K7RA estimate)ÿ 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
through December 6.

From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

"Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
emerged in the northeast.

"Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
eastern edge of the solar disk."

Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

"I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
produced huge pileups of JA signals.

My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
gamma ray burst.

Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com[2] and using the archives feature in
the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
unusual VLF antenna.

This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
long to reach us.

Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

https://bit.ly/3znjztv[3]

More info on the event:

https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi[4]

Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU[5]

Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
phones? You can participate:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data[6]

Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy[7]

Some tabloid news on flares:

https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL[8]

Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR[9]

In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
were wrong.

The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 9.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB
[2] http://Spaceweather.com
[3] https://bit.ly/3znjztv
[4] https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi
[5] https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU
[6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data
[7] https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy
[8] https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL
[9] https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/04/2022

Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
to 129.9.

There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
latitude A index.

At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream from November 4-5."

Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

"The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
absence of energetically significant phenomena.

"A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

"Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

"Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

"On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
universe.

"Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ[1], just days before Halloween!

"A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

"Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

"(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV[2] .)

"Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

"Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

"Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
disturbance could follow."

Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

Solar blasts in the news:

https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v[3]

A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/[4]

News about radio blackouts!

https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W[5]

A smiley Sun:

https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd[6]

New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I[7]

Part 3 of her mini-course:

https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk[8]

This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[9] for
details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ
[2] https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV
[3] https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v
[4] https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/
[5] https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W
[6] https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd
[7] https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I
[8] https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk
[9] https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/14/2022

ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
night.

Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13. But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are the solar flux forecasts.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
days since, the average rose to 137.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19,ÿ then 110, 114, 112 and 114
on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20,ÿ 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
December 20-22.

Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

"10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319 UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me in Spanish."

That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
from Puerto Rico.

More on Rodrigues Island:

https://bbc.in/3El5MGS[1]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ[2]

Articles about solar flares and radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu[3]

https://bit.ly/3hkvke8[4]

Paul, K2PMD, asked:

"I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
in the weekly propagation report?"

My response:

"The reason is, there are too many of them.ÿ Instead, geomagnetic
indicators are summarized using the A index.

"If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

"K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

"The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

"https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW[5]

"I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[6]

"Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
get a finer resolution."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bbc.in/3El5MGS
[2] https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ
[3] https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu
[4] https://bit.ly/3hkvke8
[5] https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW
[6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/18/2022

At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
Flux rose, while spots fell.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
cm radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
emerged the next day on November 17.

How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
July 2025, about 32 months from now.

So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
Letter.

Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14, then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December 20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and 5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
Friday's bulletin.

Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

"10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
Angeles.ÿ But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
make 150.

"Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

"Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
last solar cycle.

"I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
in Los Angeles.

"About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
later.

"HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
worked and heard was just incredible.ÿ Mostly peaking around
1956-1957!"

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

"Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see https://bit.ly/3Askfyi[1] ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

"The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
shortwave propagation conditions.

"Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
phase of the disturbance."

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM[2]

Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR[3]

Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3V6jinh[4]

https://bit.ly/3V0isIY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 3.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3Askfyi
[2] https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM
[3] https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR
[4] https://bit.ly/3V6jinh
[5] https://bit.ly/3V0isIY
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/02/2022

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 to 30.ÿ But sunspots were visible every day.ÿ Then on December 1 three new sunspot groups emerged.ÿ The sunspot number rose from 12 to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6,and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past month. ÿNo doubt this produced aurora.ÿ The next day the disturbance continued, with collage A index at 51.ÿ These are very large numbers.

The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted.ÿ This is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter.ÿ We might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130, 115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to 6, 2023.

The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2 to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21, then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18 and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

OK1HH wrote:

"The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed significantly from the week before.

The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's magnetic field mostly increased.

The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in the solar wind hit the Earth.ÿ In the ionosphere we could first observe an increase in MUF.ÿ Further development of the disturbance continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave propagation.

Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity, but without the possibility of more precise timing.

On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the southeastern limb of the Sun.ÿ So solar activity will not drop but will probably rise again over the next few days.

Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better. In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number Series"

https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX[1]

This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/[2]

Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] .ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]
ÿ.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] ÿ.

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.


[1] https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX
[2] https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/
[3] https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive.propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/16/2022

Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
137.5 to 150.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
combination for favorable HF propagation.

New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

"What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
this year was 148, last year only 78."

The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
and 20 on January 21-24.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

"It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

"We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
magnetic field calmed down.

"On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
there were eleven sunspot groups.

"Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

"Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
20."

The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

https://bit.ly/3HCHytO[1]

David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O[2]

Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

https://bit.ly/3FuPniB[3]

Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
Carrington event?

https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR[4]

Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3[5]

More and more news about flares:

https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc[6]

https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK[7]

https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k[8]

Another Solar Cycle 19?

https://bit.ly/3FYgioi[9]

N0JK reports:

"Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

More 6 meter news from KM0T:

"Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
hop.

"There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
let us know as that would be an interesting path.

"My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
ice storm.ÿ Bottom antenna about 25 feet.ÿ (Stacked 6el over 6el,
20' apart.)

"Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

"I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
Island here some months ago.

"The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did).ÿ I heard snow
and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

"That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
Midwest with true F2.

"I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning.ÿ It rained
pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
around, my ice was off the antennas.

"Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
+25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
between the ZLs.

"First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig.ÿ He gave me a +00.

"Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north.ÿ At 0107
UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
probably FT8 or FT4.

W2ZDP reported on December 14:

"There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

"I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
informative new video:

https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
with a mean of 6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3HCHytO
[2] https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O
[3] https://bit.ly/3FuPniB
[4] https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR
[5] https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3
[6] https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc
[7] https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK
[8] https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k
[9] https://bit.ly/3FYgioi
[10] https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/10/2023

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December 30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
points to 157.8.

On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

"Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
(co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

"This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

"The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
six-year low.

"Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
cosmic ray decline will grow.

"On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
an X-class flare from it.

"The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

"ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
are visible to the naked eye)."

OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with current numbers.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz[1]

Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm[2]

Solar outburst:

https://bit.ly/3X6oUio[3]

A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2[4]

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

http://www.solen.info/solar/[5]

Identifying unknown HF signals:

https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.


[1] https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz
[2] https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm
[3] https://bit.ly/3X6oUio
[4] https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2
[5] http://www.solen.info/solar/
[6] https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/13/2023

Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
by far the all time largest.

But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
8, another on January 9ÿ two more January 10 and still another on
January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
days.

On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

"Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
(EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
January 6.

"High Solar Activity this week."

N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz[1]

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
turns back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
left the Sun.

"In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

"Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
sunspot group AR3186.

"As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
difficult to predict accurately."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

"Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

"Time UTC:ÿÿÿ Callsign:ÿÿÿÿÿ Grid:ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Miles
1346ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ G3YPZÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ JO02bsÿÿÿÿÿ 3,494
1354,1528ÿÿÿ ÿ G4RIEÿÿÿÿÿ ÿ ÿ IO83rnÿÿÿÿÿÿ 3,372
1413,1521ÿÿ ÿÿ 2E0PLOÿÿÿ ÿÿ IO91wmÿÿ ÿ 3,511
1600ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ÿ ÿ ÿÿ EA2CCGÿ ÿ ÿ IN92aoÿÿÿÿÿ 3,660
1813ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ÿ ÿ ÿÿ KP4NVXÿÿÿÿÿ FK68vlÿÿÿÿ ÿ 1,625"

Here is a photo of the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR[2]

One of a Solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3W9EWav[3]

Solar news in the Washington Post:

https://wapo.st/3iul6sN[4]

An article on Radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV[5]

The Parker Solar Probe:

https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic[6]

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 6.1.
ÿ


[1] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
[2] https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR
[3] https://bit.ly/3W9EWav
[4] https://wapo.st/3iul6sN
[5] https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV
[6] https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic
[7] https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/20/2023

Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
the day.

From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for
the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
high."

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
8 on February 27 through March 2.

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

"Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

"Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
never left the Sun.

"In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
group AR3186.

"As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
to predict accurately."

Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

"Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

I replied:

"On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

"I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

"From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
and 2330 UTC.

"To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
course, these are statistical approximations."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
on 10 meter FM.

"Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

"I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

"Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

"The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
difficult at times.

"He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
Argentina:

https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08[1]

Earlier, Mike reported:

"On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

"Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
signals. All the signals had light QSB.

"UTC:ÿÿÿ Callsign:ÿÿÿÿÿ Grid:
1544ÿÿÿÿ F5SDDÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ JN23qf
1617ÿÿÿÿ G4RIEÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ IO83rn
1803ÿÿÿÿ XE2LVMÿÿÿÿÿÿ DL92dp
2040ÿÿÿÿ AL7IDÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ BP64ku
2040ÿÿÿÿ LU1HJSÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ FF79XX"

Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

"Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

"First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

"Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

"That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
2230 UTC.

"The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
contest."

Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4[2]

Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/[3]

An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC[4]

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [7]and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08
[2] https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4
[3] https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/
[4] https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC
[5] https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/27/2023

From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
January 19-25.

Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the final reporting week
for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.

Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.

The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was over a month ago, and
through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward
Spring conditions.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near
205 on February 14-15, but flux values in the next few days are
lower than those posted in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27-28, 145 on January 29-30,
140 on January 31 through February 1, then 145, 150 and a big jump
to 185 on February 2-4, 190 on February 5-6, 195 on February 7-12,
200 on February 13, 205 on February 14-15, 200 on February 16-18,
then 195, 200, and 190 on February 19-21, 185 on February 22-23, 180
on February 24-25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then
180, 185 and 190 on March 2-4. Flux values are expected to keep
rising, peaking above 200 again after March 10.

Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability
is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8
on February 2-3, 5 on February 4-6, 12 on February 7-8, then 15, 12
and 5 on February 9-11, 8 on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-17,
then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18-22, 8 on February 23-25,
then 5 on February 26-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 28 through
March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 26, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"We had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected
CMEs produced auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a
noticeable deterioration in shortwave propagation.

"A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around 2200 UTC. At the same
time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) and broke it! A
piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and then carried away
by the solar wind.

"In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large
regions, AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are
beyond the edge of the solar disk by January 26. This is associated
with a significant drop in solar activity. While we know of other
active regions beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are
not large enough to expect a repeat of the January pattern in
February. But we expect a similarly erratic pattern contributing to
limited forecasting capabilities."

Long time reader and contributor David Moore sends us this:

https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B[1]

An article about Starspots:

https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn[2]

KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6 MHz.

On January 26 from 1430-1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With QSB, signals were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he worked DM5TS, signals 4x5 with QSB.

Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

"Sunday morning (January 22, 2023) of the ARRL January VHF Contest
had some great propagation on the 6 meter band. I operated portable
signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
traces at 1505 UTC.

"There was a surprise sporadic-E opening Sunday morning to W1, W2,
W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were booming in and I had a
pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in FK52 peaking at -8 dB at
1554 UTC.

"Even more amazing MM0AMW decoded several W9 stations on 6 meters.
Several stations I worked, such as KW9A were spotted into Scotland.
Unsure if the propagation mode was multi-hop Es or F2?

"Later that evening an Es -- TEP opening from the northeast states
to South America."

More dramatic solar warnings.

https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL[3]

Here is a prediction that was WAY off:

https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl[4]

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video:

https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo[5]

This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-Meter CW contest.

Check https://www.cq160.com[6] for details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166,
144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1,
217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5,
with a mean of 5.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B
[2] https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn
[3] https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL
[4] https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl
[5] https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo
[6] https://www.cq160.com
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/03/2023

Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
139.5.

This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
198.9.

This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
whole year.

Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
moderately powerful.

"Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
wind increased.

"In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
had already set.

"Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
continues.

Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
F2 propagation.

Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

https://bit.ly/40DEzsj[1]

Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

"Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8.ÿ I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC.ÿ He gave me a +04 and I gave him
a -13 dB report.ÿ Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

"For the past month or so, European openings are from about
1500-1730 UTC here in California.

"Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
QSO. LP?

"I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

"You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
right time!"

Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

"Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
15 meters usually shuts down there.ÿÿ Was great to connect with my
heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
working stations all across the USA and Canada."

Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

"We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

"As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
then."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
with a mean of 5.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/40DEzsj
[2] k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/10/2023

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
6, and two more on February 8.

On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
the reporting week.

The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
the next few days.

Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8ÿ on February 10-11, then 5
on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

"Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
bursts before we could observe it.

"Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
activity will continue.

"On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
following days.

"Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
activity starting on February 6.

"The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[1]

Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
bulletin.

He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/40J3g6m[2]

https://bit.ly/3lojTnY[3]

KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9[4]

Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

"Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

"I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
Yagi just after February 1.

"Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
signals took such an upturn in strength.

"Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM, HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND, PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many more, all on 10 meters.

"But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

"First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
well but he came back to me.

"Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

"I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
K3."

A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
of existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP[5]

https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz[6]

A more reliable source:

https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4[7]

Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
12, with a mean of 7.6.

ÿ


[1] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[2] https://bit.ly/40J3g6m
[3] https://bit.ly/3lojTnY
[4] https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9
[5] https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP
[6] https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz
[7] https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4
[8] https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS